Democratic Distance: Global Divergence and Spatial Spillovers in Political Values
This study investigates whether democratic values, representation, rights, participation, and rule of law, are converging or diverging across countries over the period 1991 to 2022. Using panel data from 152 countries drawn from the Global State of Democracy Indices, we employ spatial econometric techniques, including Spatial Durbin and General Nesting Spatial Models, to assess both absolute and conditional σ-convergence. Our results reveal a global pattern of divergence across all four dimensions, with significant spatial dependence. Spatial spillover effects vary by dimension: representation and participation show robust positive externalities, while rights and rule of law display limited or negative spatial diffusion. A continent-level disaggregation uncovers substantial heterogeneity: Africa and South America exhibit positive regional convergence effects, whereas Europe, North America, and Asia show weak or even adverse spillovers. These findings suggest that democratic development is not uniformly diffused but shaped by complex spatial dynamics and regional political contexts. The study contributes to theories of democratic diffusion by reframing convergence as a spatial process of value alignment rather than institutional isomorphism.
© The Author(s) 2025. Published by RITHA Publishing. This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited maintaining attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and URL DOI.
Jadhav, V. (2025). Democratic Distance: Global Divergence and Spatial Spillovers in Political Values. Applied Journal of Economics, Law and Governance, Volume I, Issue 1(1), 27-51. https://doi.org/10.57017/ajelg.v1.i1(2).02
democratisation. Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft, 14(2), 75–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12286-020-00446-5
Almond, G. A., & Verba, S. (1963). The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton University Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt183pnr2
Anselin, L. (1992). Space and applied econometrics. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 22(3), 307–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(92)90031-U
Arbia, G., Basile, R., & Piras, G. (2005). Using spatial panel data in modelling regional growth and convergence. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi/10.2139/ssrn.936321
Beissinger, M. R. (2022). The revolutionary city: Urbanization and the global transformation of rebellion. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv2175r9q
Bergesen, A. (1992). Regime change in the semiperiphery: Democratization in Latin America and the Socialist Bloc. Sociological Perspectives, 35(2), 405–413. https://doi.org/10.2307/1389386
Boix, C. (2020). Democracy and prosperity: Reinventing capitalism through a turbulent century. By Torben Iversen and David Soskice. Perspectives on Politics, 18(2). Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019(360p), 545–547. https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/websites.harvard.edu/ dist/e/98/files/2022/09/Iversen_Soskice_PUP_paperback_ch1.pdf
Bollen, K. A. (1979). Political democracy and the timing of development. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 572–587. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094588
Brinks, D., & Coppedge, M. (2006). Diffusion is no illusion: Neighbour emulation in the third wave of democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 39(4), 463–489. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414005276666
Burkhart, R. E., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1994). Comparative democracy: The economic development thesis. American Political Science Review, 88(4), 903–910. https://doi.org/10.2307/2082715
Carothers, T., & Samet-Marram, O. (2015). The new global marketplace of political change. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/ research/2015/04/the-new-global-marketplace-of-political-change?lang=en
Cederman, L.-E., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2004). Conquest and regime change: An evolutionary model of the spread of democracy and peace. International Studies Quarterly, 48(3), 603–629. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-8833.2004.00317.x
Cutright, P. (1963). Measuring the impact of local party activity on the general election vote. Public Opinion Quarterly, 27(3), 372–386. https://doi.org/10.1086/267182
Denk, T., & Silander, D. (2007). Att studera demokratisering: Fenomen, förlopp, förutsättningar & framtid. Santérus Förlag. ISBN: 978-9173590075
Olimat, M. S. (2008). The Fourth Wave of Democratization. American Journal of Islam and Society, 25(2), 16–48. https://doi.org/10.35632/ajis.v25i2.399
Eckstein, H. (1988). A culturalist theory of political change. American Political Science Review, 82(3), 789–804 https://doi.org/10.2307/1962491
Elhorst, J.P. (2014). Spatial Panel Models. In: Fischer, M., Nijkamp, P. (eds) Handbook of Regional Science. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23430-9_86
Gleditsch, K. S. (2002). All international politics is local: The diffusion of conflict, integration, democratization. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. https://press.umich.edu/pdf/0472112678-fm.pdf
Gleditsch, K. S., & Ward, M. D. (2006). Diffusion and the international context of democratization. International Organization, 60(4), 911–933. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060309
Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (2022). Revolutions, counterrevolutions, and democracy. In Handbook of revolutions in the 21st century: The new waves of revolutions, and the causes and effects of disruptive political change (pp. 105–136). Cham, Germany: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_4
Hazrana, J., Birthal, P. S., Negi, D. S., Mani, G., & Pandey, G. (2019). Spatial spill-overs, structural transformation and economic growth in India. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 32(2), 145–158. https://doi.org/10.5958/0974-0279.2019.00028.4
Held, D. (2014). Climate change, global governance and democracy: Some questions. In Canned heat (pp. 17–28). India: Routledge. ISBN: 978-1315734002
Howard, P. N., & Hussain, M. M. (2013). Democracy’s fourth wave? Digital media and the Arab Spring. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199936953.001.0001
Huntington, S. P. (1991). Democracy’s third wave. Journal of Democracy, 2(2), 12–34. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1991.0016
Kalra, R., & Thakur, S. (2015). Development patterns in India: Spatial convergence or divergence? GeoJournal, 80(1), 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-014-9527-0
Kaplan, R. D. (1997). Was democracy just a moment? December, (55–80).
Kingsley, A. F., & Graham, B. A. T. (2017). The effects of information voids on capital flows in emerging markets. Journal of International Business Studies, 48(3), 324–343. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-016-0056-6
Kocornik‐Mina, A. (2009). Spatial econometrics of multiregional growth: The case of India. Papers in Regional Science, 88(2), 279–301. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2009.00244.x
Kopstein, J. S., & Reilly, D. A. (2000). Geographic diffusion and the transformation of the post-communist world. World Politics, 53(1), 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887100009369
Lachapelle, J., Levitsky, S., Way, L. A., & Casey, A. E. (2020). Social revolution and authoritarian durability. World Politics, 72(4), 557–600. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887120000106
LeSage, J.P., & Pace, R.K. (2010). Spatial Econometric Models. In: Fischer, M., Getis, A. (eds) Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03647-7_18
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. (2020). The new competitive authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy, 31(1), 51-65. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2020.0004
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. (2005). International linkage and democratization. Journal of Democracy, 16(3), 20–34. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2005.0048
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. A. (2023). Democracy’s surprising resilience. Journal of Democracy, 34(4), 5-20. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907684
Lipset, S. M., Seong, K. R., & Torres, J. C. (1993). A comparative analysis of the social requisites of democracy. International Social Science Journal, 45(136), 155-175. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000094259
Margetts, H. (2019). 9. Rethinking democracy with social media. The Political Quarterly, 90(Suppl. 1), 107–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12574
Markoff, J. (1996). Waves of democracy. Social movements and political change. Thousand Oaks, CA: Pine Forge Press. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781452234090
Modelski, G., & Perry III, G. (1991). Democratization in long perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 39(1–2), 23–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(91)90026-C
Modelski, G., & Perry III, G. (2002). Democratization in long perspective’ revisited. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69(4), 359–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00152-4
Mukherjee, B. (2016). Democracy and trade policy in developing countries. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/D/bo23151082.html
Norris, A. (2008). Becoming who we are: Democracy and the political problem of hope. Critical Horizons, 9(1), 77–89. https://doi.org/10.1558/crit.v9i1.77
Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2019). Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
O’Donnell, G., Schmitter, P. C., & Whitehead, L. (Eds.). (1986). Transitions from authoritarian rule: Comparative perspectives, 3. JHU Press.
O’Donnell, G. A. (1996). Illusions about consolidation. Journal of Democracy, 7(2), 34–51. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.1996.0034
O’Loughlin, J., Ward, M. D., Lofdahl, C. L., Cohen, J. S., Brown, D. S., Reilly, D., . . . & Shin, M. (1998). The diffusion of democracy, 1946–1994. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 88(4), 545–574. https://doi.org/10.1111/0004-5608.00112
Paxton, P. (2000). Women’s suffrage in the measurement of democracy: Problems of operationalization. Studies in Comparative International Development, 35(3), 92-111. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699767
Pevehouse, J. C. (2002). Democracy from the outside-in? International organizations and democratization. International Organization, 56(3), 515–549. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081802760199872
Pevehouse, J. C. W., & Glenn, C. (2024). International dimensions of democratization. World Politics. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.0.a930436
Przeworski, A. (1987). Capitalism and social democracy. Labour / le Travail, 19. https://doi.org/10.2307/25142838
Rey, S. J., & Montouri, B. D. (1999). US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric perspective. Regional Studies, 33(2), 143–156. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343409950122945
Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations (5th ed.). New York: Free Press. ISBN 978-0743258234
Ross, M. H., & Homer, E. (1976). Galton's problem in cross-national research. World Politics, 29(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010045
Rueschemeyer, D., Stephens, E. H., & Stephens, J. D. (1992). Capitalist development and democracy, 22. Cambridge: Polity Press.
Rustow, D. A. (1970). Transitions to democracy: Toward a dynamic model. Comparative Politics, 2(3), 337–363.https://doi.org/10.2307/421307
Sala-i-Martin, X. X. (1996). The classical approach to convergence analysis. The Economic Journal, 106(437), 1019–1036. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235375
Sardadvar, S. (2012). Growth and disparities in Europe: Insights from a spatial growth model. Papers in Regional Science, 91(2), 257–275. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2011.00384.x
Shaban, A. (2006). Regional structures, growth and convergence of income in Maharashtra. Economic and Political Weekly, 1803–1815. https://www.epw.in/journal/2006/18/special-articles/regional-structures-growth-and-convergence-income-maharashtra.html
Starr, H. (1991). Democratic dominoes: Diffusion approaches to the spread of democracy in the international system. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35(2), 356–381. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002791035002010
Stokke, O. (1995). Aid and political conditionality: Core issues and state of the art. Aid and Political Conditionality. ISBN: 978-0203044094
Talbott, S. (1996). Democracy and the national interest. Foreign Affairs, 75(6), 47. https://doi.org/10.2307/20047829
Taylor, P. J. (1996). The Way the modern world works: World hegemony to world impasse. Chichester, UK: Wiley. ISBN: 978-0-471-96586-2
Tilly, C. (1978). Collective violence in European perspective. https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/ bitstream/handle/2027.42/50953/178.pdf
Tilly, C. (1984). Big structures, large processes, huge comparisons. https://www.jstor.org/stable/ 10.7758/9781610447720
Tucker, J. A., Theocharis, Y., Roberts, M. E., & Barberá, P. (2017). From liberation to turmoil: social media and democracy. Journal of Democracy, 28(4), 46–59. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0064
Vanhanen, T. (1997). Prospects of democracy. London: Routledge.
Wejnert, B. (2005). Diffusion, development, and democracy, 1800–1999. American Sociological Review, 70(1), 53–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/000312240507000104
Weyland, K. (2021). Assault on Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 398pp. ISBN 978-1108844338