Unpacking the Remittance-Development Paradox: A Longitudinal Analysis of Human Development and Sustainability in Nigeria

Article DOI: https://doi.org/10.57017/ajelg.v2.i1(3).04

Author(s):

Gbenro Matthew SOKUNBI Department of Economics Education, College of Social Sciences Education (COSScED), Lagos State University of Education, Ijanikin, Nigeria
Peter Olugbenga OLUWO Department of Economics Education, College of Social Sciences Education, Lagos State University of Education, Otto/Ijanikin, Nigeria
Oluwatoba Oyedele ADENIWURA Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Olabisi Onabanjo University Ago-Iwoye, Ogun, Nigeria

Abstract:

This study investigates the complex relationship between migrant remittances and sustainable economic development in Nigeria by disaggregating progress into Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Human Development Index (HDI). Adopting a longitudinal lens from 1994 - 2023, the research unpacks the "Remittance-Development Paradox" using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Empirical results reveal a statistically significant long-run negative effect of remittances on the composite Economic Development Index (ECD) and HDI, suggesting that dollar inflows have failed to catalyse sustainable human capital gains. While foreign direct investment shows positive developmental potential, the paradox persists due to structural inefficiencies and consumption-heavy remittance patterns.

The findings challenge the traditional narrative of remittance-led prosperity and emphasize the need for sustainability-focused policies that redirect inflows into productive social investments. The study provides a critical research agenda for aligning financial inflows with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in sub-Saharan Africa.

© The Author(s) 2026. Published by RITHA Publishing. This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited maintaining attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and URL DOI.

Article’s history: Received 31st of January, 2026; Revised 9th of February, 2026; Accepted for publication 19th of February, 2026; Available online: 22nd of February, 2026; Published as article in Volume II, Issue 1(3), 2026.

How to cite:

Sokunbi, G. M., Oluwo, P. O., & Adeniwura, O. O. (2026). Unpacking the Remittance-Development Paradox: A Longitudinal Analysis of Human Development and Sustainability in Nigeria. Applied Journal of Economics, Law and Governance, Volume II, Issue 1(3), 73-89. https://doi.org/10.57017/ajelg.v2.i1(3).04

Conflict of Interest Statement: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Acknowledgment/Founding: N/A

Data Availability Statement: The data that support the findings of this study were sourced from World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI, 2024) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2024).

Ethical Approval Statement: This study is based exclusively on the analysis of publicly available secondary data obtained from the World Bank (World Development Indicators, 2024) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2024). The data used are aggregate, anonymised, and do not contain any personally identifiable information. Consequently, the study did not involve human participants, animal subjects, or primary data collection, and formal ethical approval was not required.

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