Fiscal Incentive Design and Digital Governance: A Time-Series Analysis of Tax Compliance in Southern Brazil
The state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, implemented four behavioural experiments aimed at improving tax compliance. This study contributes to the literature by examining multiple behavioural tax programs, providing a longitudinal assessment of citizen engagement. It highlights changes in citizen engagement in the Tax Education Program, focusing on the evolution of new subscribers and their relationship with the implementation of innovative projects. We estimate time-series regression models for new subscribers between November 2012 and May 2023, including specifications with and without structural breaks. The key moment corresponds to the launch of Devolve-ICMS and Receita Certa, with a 635% increase in new subscribers. Inflation showed a small negative impact. The results suggest that reductions in the value of rewards and low-value incentives negatively affected engagement, while initiatives providing direct and visible financial returns to citizens, reinforcing perceptions of fairness and reciprocity, had particularly strong effects on engagement.
© The Author(s) 2026. Published by RITHA Publishing. This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited maintaining attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and URL DOI.
Article’s history: Received 21st of April, 2026; Revised 31st of May, 2026; Accepted for publication 9th of June, 2026; Available online: 15th of June, 2026; Published as research article in Volume II, Issue 1(3), 2026.
Tonetto, J. L., Pique, J. M., Fochezatto, A., Rapetti, C. (2026). Fiscal Incentive Design and Digital Governance: A Time-Series Analysis of Tax Compliance in Southern Brazil. Applied Journal of Economics, Law and Governance, Volume II, Issue 1(3), 157-180. https://doi.org/10.57017/ajelg.v2.i1(3).09
Funding Statement: This research received no external funding.
Conflict of Interest Statement: The author declares no conflicts of interest.
Data Availability Statement: The data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Jorge Luis Tonetto (jorgeluis.tonetto@salle.url.edu), for the purpose of reproducing the results reported in this article.
Ethical Approval Statement: This study is based exclusively on secondary administrative and aggregated data provided by the Revenue Agency of Rio Grande do Sul (SEFAZ/RS). The research does not involve human participants, human biological materials, animal subjects, surveys, interviews, or access to personally identifiable information. All data were analyzed in anonymised and aggregated form for research purposes only. Consequently, ethical approval from an Institutional Review Board (IRB) or Ethics Committee was not required under applicable research ethics guidelines. The study was conducted in accordance with the principles of research integrity, transparency, and responsible data use.
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