The Prospect of the Proposed Currency Union on Intra-Regional Trade: Southern African Customs Union
-
Stanley ABBAN Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Ghana
Formal currency union with a common policy is welfare superlative to formal currency union due to relatively greater transparency. The study evaluates whether adopting a common currency will lead to trade. Additionally, the study estimates whether countries are under trading or overtrading to investigate whether there exists trade potential. The results show there exists greater trade potential due to geographic and economic fundamentals therefore adopting a common currency will lead to trade. Also, the study showed that the financial markets served as a buffer for the volatility of the currencies notably the Rand. The study concludes that a currency union with a common policy could serve as a panacea when the appropriate institutional policy framework is adopted to reduce trade and non-trade barriers.
Abban, S. (2020). The Prospect of the Proposed Currency Union on Intra-Regional Trade: Southern African Customs Union. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Volume XV, Winter 4(70), 758-773. https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v15.4(70).05
[1] Asonuma, M.T., Debrun, M.X., and Masson, M.P.R. 2012. Welfare effects of monetary integration: The common monetary area and beyond. In IMF Working Paper No.12-136.
[2] Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., and Robinson, J. A. 2001. The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5): 1369-1401.
[3] Ade, M.A. 2008. The appropriateness of monetary integration within SACU. Doctoral dissertation, University of Johannesburg.
[4] Ades, A., and Di Tella, R. 1999. Rents, competition, and corruption. American Economic Review, 89(4): 982-993.
[5] Alesina, A., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R. 2005. Trade, growth and the size of countries. In Handbook of economic growth. Volume 1, Elsevier, 1499-1542 pp.
[6] Álvarez, I.C., Barbero, J., Rodríguez-Pose, A., and Zofío, J.L. 2018. Does institutional quality matter for trade? Institutional conditions in a sectoral trade framework. World Development, 103: 72-87.
[7] Anderson, J.E., and Van Wincoop, E. 2003. Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1): 170-192.
[8] Antràs, P., and Helpman, E. 2008. Contractual fictions and global sourcing, in Helpman, E., Marin, D., and Verdier, T. (eds), The organization of firms in a global economy. Cambridge, M.A., Harvard University Press.
[9] Arieff, A. 2010. Global economic crisis: Impact on sub-Saharan Africa and global policy responses. DIANE Publishing. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40778.pdf
[10] Ayayee, A.E. 2010. In proposing an enhancement of SACU competition policy. Doctoral dissertation, University of Pretoria.
[11] Basdevant, O., Benicio, D., and Yakhshilikov, M.Y. 2012. Inequalities and growth in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Region (No. 12-290). International Monetary Fund.
[12] Bausinger, M., Bertlesmann-Scott, T., Charalambides, N., Slabbert, J., and Van Heerden, F. 2015. Overcoming barriers to supply chain integration in SACU: Lessons from the private sector. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23827
[13] Bello-Schünemann, J., and Moyer, J.D. 2018. Structural pressures and political instability-trajectories for sub-Saharan Africa. ISS Africa Report, 2018 (9): 1-32.
[14] Beyer, H., and Fening, F. 2012. The impact of formal institutions on global strategy in developed vs. emerging economies. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(15).
[15] Bhowmik, D. 2009. Regional integration in Africa: A case study of SACU. Political Economy Journal of India, 18(1): 1.
[16] Bhowmik, D., and Sen, R.K. 2013. Economic integration in SACU through common currency. The Indian Economic Journal, 61(3): 358-380.
[17] Birdsall, N., Rodrik, D., and Subramanian, A. 2005. How to help poor countries. Foreign Affairs, 136-152 pp.
[18] Chlond, B. 2018. Costs and benefits of using the Rand as common currency in southern Africa. Master's Degree. EKHS21 20181
[19] Claessens, S., and Laeven, L. 2004. Competition in the financial sector and growth: A cross-country perspective. In Financial Development and Economic Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, London, 66-105 pp.
[20] Coase, Ronald, H.1992. The institutional structure of production. American Economic Review, 82: 713–719. September.
[21] Crowley, F. 2013. Optimum currency area theory and EMU: An analysis of the Eurozone’s development, crisis and future. Bachelor of Arts in Politics and Public Administration, University of Limerick, Ireland. https://www.ul.ie/ppa/content/files/FYP_Fearghal_Crowley_BA_Politics_and_Public_Administration_reduced.pdf
[22] Cunat, A., and Melitz, M.J. 2012. Volatility, labor market flexibility, and the pattern of comparative advantage. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(2): 225-254.
[23] Dlamini, D.F. 2014. Convergence and asymmetries in the common monetary area in Southern Africa. Volume 27, 100-118 pp. March, Special Edition.
[24] Dolamore, R. 2014. The tools of macroeconomic policy - a short primer. https://www.aph.gov.au/ About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook44p/MacroeconomicPolicy
[25] Easterly, W. 2002. The elusive quest for growth: Economists' adventures and misadventures in the tropics. MIT Press (Reprint edition) ISBN: 978-0262550420, 356 pp.
[26] Ethier, W. 1973. International trade and the forward exchange market. The American Economic Review, 63(3): 494-503.
[27] Flatters, F., and Stern, M. 2005. Implementing the SACU revenue-sharing formula: Customs revenues. Policy brief prepared for the South African National Treasury. Available at: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/faculty/ flatters/writings/ff&ms_nt_sacu_rsf.pdf
[28] Friedman, J., and Schady, N. 2013. How many infants likely died in Africa as a result of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis? Health Economics, 22(5): 611-622.
[29] Fürrutter, M. 2012. The Eurozone: An optimal currency area? IFIER Papers 2. https://igeuropeanresearch.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/paper_ifier_martina_fuerrutter_feb2012.pdf
[30] Glick, R., and Rose, A.K. 2002. Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence. European Economic Review, 46(6): 1125-1151.
[31] Gourieroux, C., Monfort, A., and Trognon, A. 1984. Pseudo maximum likelihood methods: applications to Poisson models. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 701-720.
[32] Grandes, M. 2003. Macroeconomic convergence in Southern Africa: The rand zone experience (No. 231). OECD Publishing. African Custom Union an optimum currency area? (Doctoral dissertation).
[33] Grynberg, R., and Motswapong, M. 2012. SACU Revenue sharing formula: Towards a developmental agreement, Working Papers 32, Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis.
[34] Honde, G.J., and Abraha, F.G. 2015. Botswana. African Economic Outlook. Available at: https://www.african economicoutlook.org/botswana/
[35] Iqbal, M.Z., and Khan, M.M.S. (Eds.). 1998. Trade reform and regional integration in Africa. International Monetary Fund. ISBN-10: 9781557757692, 532 pp. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Books/ Issues/2016/12/30/Trade-Reform-and-Regional-Integration-in-Africa-2799
[36] Iwanow, T. 2012. Essays on institutions and international trade. Doctoral dissertation. University of Manchester, United Kingdom.
[37] Iwanow, T. 2012. Essays on Institutions and International Trade. Doctoral dissertation. University of Manchester, United Kingdom.
[38] Jefferis, K.R. 2007. The process of monetary integration in the SADC region. Journal of Southern African Studies, 33(1): 83-106.
[39] Kaufmann, D., and Wei, S.J. 1999. Does "grease money" speed up the wheels of commerce? No. W 7093). National Bureau of Economic Research.
[40] Keane, J., Calì, M., and Kennan, J. 2010. Impediments to intra-regional trade in Sub-Saharan Africa. Overseas Development Institute. https://www.odi.org/publications/6146-impediments-intra-regional-trade-sub-saharan-africa
[41] Kenen, P. 1969. The theory of optimum currency areas: An eclectic view. Monetary Problems of the International Economy, 45(3): 41-60.
[42] Khetsi, Q.S., and Mongale, I.P 2014. The impact of capital, markets on the economic. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334173723_THE_IMPACT_OF_CAPITAL_MARKET_ON_THE_ECONOMIC_GROWTH_IN_OMAN
[43] Kiala, C.Z. 2010. The politics of trade in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU): Prospect of a SACU-China free trade agreement. Doctoral dissertation, University of Pretoria.
[44] Krenz, A. 2016. Do political institutions influence international trade? Measurement of institutions and the long-run effects. Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers Number.
[45] Krueger, A.O. 1997. Trade policy and economic development: How we learn. Working paper no. 5896. National Bureau of Economic Research.
[46] Krugman, P.R. 2009. A Country is Not a Company. Harvard Business Press. ISBN: 978-1633695184, 64 pp.
[47] Lall, S. 2004. Reinventing industrial strategy: The Role of Government Policy in Building Industrial Competitiveness, TIPS Working Paper No.9.
[48] Leftwich, A., and Sen, K. 2010. Beyond Institutions. Institutions and organisations in the politics and economics of poverty reduction–a thematic synthesis of research evidence. IPPG Research Consortium on Improving Institutions for Pro-Poor Growth, University of Manchester.
[49] LooiKee, H., Nicita, A., and Olarreaga, M. 2009. Estimating trade restrictiveness indices. The Economic Journal, 119 (534): 172-199.
[50] Maleke, X.N. 2008. Macroeconomic convergence in SACU: A panel unit root analysis, Doctoral dissertation, University of Johannesburg.
[51] Manwa, F. 2015. Impact of trade liberalisation on economic growth: The case of the Southern African customs union (SACU) countries. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Impact-of-trade-liberalisation-on-economic-growth%3A-Manwa/7d0e4ba89aad3b39a07e16dd67d14e4a0a6a355c
[52] Maswana, J.C. 2010. The global financial crisis and recession. Impact on Africa and Development Prospects.
[53] Mathis, J.H. 2005. The Southern African Custom Union (SACU) regional co-operation framework on competition policy and unfair trade practices. In United Conference on Trade and Development.
[54] Mattoo, A., Mulabdic, A., and Ruta, M., 2017. Trade creation and trade diversion in deep agreements. The World Bank. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/328491559591517896/Trade-Creation-anf-Trade-Diversion.pdf
[55] Mauro, P. 1995. Corruption & growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3): 681-712.
[56] McKinnon, R.I. 1963. Optimum currency areas. The American Economic Review, 53(4): 717-725.
[57] Memela, V.L. 2010. Should the Southern African Customs Union form an optimum currency area? Doctoral dissertation, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg.
[58] Meshach, A.J. 2007. Effects of financial integration on financial development and economic performance of the SACU countries. In ECA/ADB African Economic Conference, 15-17 pp.
[59] Mongardini, J., Benicio, D., Fontaine, T., Pastor, G., and Verdier, G. 2011. In the wake of the global economic crisis. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dp/2011/afr1101.pdf
[60] Mongelli, F.P. 2008. European economic and monetary integration, and the optimum currency area theory No. 302. Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
[61] Mundell, R.A. 1961. A theory of optimum currency areas. The American Economic Review, 51(4): 657-665.
[62] Mundell, R.A. 1973. Uncommon arguments for common currencies. The Economics of Common Currencies, 114-132 pp.
[63] Ncube, M., Brixiova, Z., and Meng, Q. 2014. Can intra-regional trade act as a global shock absorber in Africa? William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 1073, 29 pp.
[64] North, D.C. 1990. Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0511808678.
[65] Nunn, N. 2007. Relationship-specificity, incomplete contracts, and the pattern of trade. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(2): 569-600.
[66] Odhiambo, N.M. 2010. Stock market development and economic growth in South Africa: An ARDL-bounds testing approach. In A paper presented at the Annual American Business Research Conference, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
[67] Ofori-Abebrese, G. 2006. The Eco and economic development of West Africa. Journal of Science and Technology (Ghana), 26(2): 124-136.
[68] Oluwatobi S., Efobi U., Olurinola I., and Alege P. 2013. Innovation in Africa: Why institutions matter. South African Journal of Economics, 83(3): 1369-1401.
[69] Oyejide, A., Ndulu, B., Gunning, J.W. 1997. Regional integration and trade liberalisation: Evidence from country case studies, introduction and overview. Regional integration and trade liberalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2. https://idl-bnc-idrc.dspacedirect.org/bitstream/handle/10625/16568/108248.pdf?Sequence=1
[70] Panda, S., and Mohanty, R.K. 2015. Effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: Evidence from India. Economics Bulletin, 35(1): 305-312.
[71] Patroba, H., and Nene, M. 2013. Is SACU ready for a Monetary Union? South African Institute of International Affairs. Available at: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/165023/saia_sop_143_patroba__nene_20130509.pdf
[72] Peng, M.W., Sun, S.L., Pinkham, B., and Chen, H. 2009. The institution-based view as a third leg for a strategy tripod. Academy of Management Perspectives, 23(3): 63-81.
[73] Rametsi, T.S. 2015. Is Southern African Custom Union an optimum currency area? Doctoral dissertation.
[74] Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., and Trebbi, F. 2004. Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2): 131-165.
[75] Rose, A. Frankel, J. 2000. Estimating the effect of currency Unions on trade and output. Working paper 7857, DOI: 10.3386/w7857. https://www.nber.org/papers/w7857
[76] Rose, A. K. 2008. Is EMU becoming an optimum currency area? The evidence on trade and business cycle synchronization. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/255612082_Is_EMU_Becoming_ an_Optimum_Currency_Area_The_Evidence_on_Trade_and_Business_Cycle_Synchronization
[77] Rose, A.K. 2000. One money, one market: The effect of common currencies on trade. Economic Policy, 15(30): 8-45.
[78] Rose, A.K., and Van Wincoop, E. 2001. National money as a barrier to international trade: The real case for currency union. American Economic Review, 91(2): 386-390.
[79] Rossouw, J. 2006. South Africa’s role in macroeconomic convergence in SADC. ARB Conference.
[80] Russell, B. 2005. The economic effects of tariff liberalisation with reference to SACU. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.472.1701&rep=rep1&type=pdf
[81] Sakyi, D. 2013. On the implications of trade openness, foreign aid and democracy for Wagner's law in developing countries: Panel data evidence from West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The Journal of Developing Areas: 319-339.
[82] Serenis, D., and Tsounis, N. 2014. Exchange rate volatility and aggregate exports: Evidence from two small countries. ISRN Economics.
[83] Silva, J.S., and Tenreyro, S. 2006. The log of gravity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(4): 641-658.
[84] Silva, J.S., and Tenreyro, S. 2011. Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. Economics Letters, 112 (2): 220-222.
[85] Soko, M. 2008. Building regional integration in Southern Africa: Southern African Customs Union as a driving force? South African Journal of International Affairs, 15(1): 55-69.
[86] Suleiman, N.N., Kaliappan, S.R., and Ismail, N.W. 2013. Foreign direct investments (FDI) and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) countries. International Journal of Economics and Management, 7(1): 136-149.
[87] Tavlas, G., Dellas, H., and Stockman, A.C. 2008. The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems. European Economic Review, 52(6): 941-963.
[88] Unsworth, S. 2010. Upside down view of governance. Institute of Development Studies (IDS).
[89] Van der Holst, M. 2009. EPA negotiations between the EU and SADC/SACU grouping: Partnership or Asymmetry? Doctoral dissertation, Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch.
[90] Vavrek, Š. 1996. Estimation methods of gravity models. International Economics, 40(1-2): 23-39.
[91] Vijayasri, G.V. 2013. The importance of international trade in the world. International Journal of Marketing, Financial Services & Management Research, 2(9): 111-119.
[92] Wang, Jian-Ye, Iyabo, M., Kazuko, S., and Leighton, H. 2006. The common monetary area in Southern Africa: Shocks, adjustment, and policy challenges. IMF Working Paper, No. 07/158.
[93] Wei, S.J. 2000. How taxing is corruption on international investors? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(1): 1-11.
[94] Williamson, O.E. 1979. Transaction-cost economics: the governance of contractual relations. The Journal of Law and Economics, 22(2): 233-261.
[95] Winters, L.A. 2004. Trade liberalisation and economic performance: An overview. The Economic Journal, 114 (493): 4-21.
*** African Economic Outlook. 2012. Botswana 2012, African Economic Outlook. Available at: www.african economicoutlook.org
*** African Development Bank 2016. Botswana’s mineral revenues, expenditure and savings policy. A case study. Available at: www.afdb.org
*** AfDB, O.E.C.D. 2012. UNDP, and UNECA. African Economic Outlook.
*** UNCTAD. 2016. World Bank. 2015a. An analysis of issues shaping Africa’s economic future. Africa’s Pulse Volume 11. Washington, DC
*** World Trade Organization. 2009. Trade Policy Review: South Africa.
*** UNECA. 2012. Illicit financial flows from Africa: Scale and development challenges, ECA, Addis Ababa.
*** UNCTAD. 2017. UNCTAD Stat.