image

The Green Trilemma: Energy Efficiency, Banking Stability and Climate Risk in the Environmental, Social and Governance Context at World Level

Download Paper PDF: Download pdf
Author(s):
  • Massimo ARNONE Department of Economics and Business, University of Catania , Italy
  • Angelo LEOGRANDE LUM University Giuseppe Degennaro, Casamassima, Puglia, Italy
Abstract:

In the following article, we analyse the relationships among banking stability, the efficiency of the energy system and climate risks at a global level. We present a detailed analysis of the literature relating to the relationship between the banking system and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) models. In our research, we try to verify whether it is possible to achieve energy efficiency, stability of the banking system and reduction of climate risk together, i.e. the “Green Trilemma”. The econometric analysis is conducted through the following models: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Pooled Ordinary Least Squared and Weighted Least Squared-WLS. To estimate the variables, we used World Bank data. The analysis shows that ESG growth is negatively associated with energy efficiency and positively associated with banking stability and climate risk. It therefore follows that the Green Trilemma hypothesis is rejected. Countries can only target banking stability and climate risk through ESG models.

How to cite:

Arnone, M., & Leogrande, A. (2024). The green trilemma: Energy efficiency, banking stability and climate risk in the environmental, social and governance context at world level. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Volume XIX, Fall, 3(85), 235 – 255. https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v19.3(85).01 

References:

[1]  Accetturo, A., Barboni, G., Cascarona, M., Garcia-Appendini, E., & Tomasi, M. (2022). Credit supply and green investments. pp. 74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4217890

[2]  Acharya, V. V., Berner, R., Engle, R. F., Jung, H., Stroebel, J., Zeng, X., & Zhao, Y. (2023). Climate stress testing. NBER Working Paper No. 31097. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/ w31097/w31097.pdf

[3]  Addoum, J. M., Ng, D. T., & Ortiz-Bobea, A. (2023). Temperature shocks and industry earnings news. Journal of Financial Economics,150(1), 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.07.002

[4]  Alok, S., Kumar, N., & Wermers, R. (2019). Do fund managers misestimate climatic disaster risk? The Review of Financial Studies, 33 (3), 1146–1183. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz143

[6]  Angelico, C., Faiella, I., & Michelangeli, V. (2022). Il rischio climatico per le banche italiane: Un aggiornamento sulla base di un’indagine campionaria. Nota di stabilità finanziaria e vigilanza No. 29. https://www.banca ditalia.it/pubblicazioni/note-stabilita/2022-0029/Note_di_stabilita_finanziaria_e_vigilanza_N. 29_ITA.pdf.pdf

[7]  Aswani, J., Raghunandan, A., & Rajgopal, S. (2021). Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns? Review of Finance, 28(1), 75–106. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad013

[8]  Bandt, (de) O., Jacolin, L., & Lemaire, T. (2021). Climate change in developing countries: Global warming effects, transmission channels and adaptation policies. Banque de France Working Paper No. 822, pp. 68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3888112

[9]  Batten, S., Sowerbutts, R., & Tanaka, M. (2016). Let’s talk about the weather: The impact of climate change on central banks. Bank of England Working Papers No 603. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/ working-paper/2016/lets-talk-about-the-weather-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-central-banks.pdf

[10]   Battiston, S., Mandel, A., Monasterolo, I., Schütze, F., & Visentin, G. (2017). A climate stress-test of the financial system. Nature Climate Change, 7(4), 283-288. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2726076

[11]   Blickle, K. S., Hamerling, S. N., & Morgan, D. P. (2022). How bad are weather disasters for banks? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff reports No. 990. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/ staff_reports/sr990.pdf

[12]   Billio, M., Costola, M., Hristova, I., Latino, C., & Pelizzon, L. (2022). Sustainable finance: A journey toward ESG and climate risk. SSRN Working Paper No. 349, pp. 61. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4093838

[13]   Birindelli, G., Bonanno, G., Dell'Atti, S., & Iannuzzi, A. P. (2022). Climate change commitment, credit risk and the country's environmental performance: Empirical evidence from a sample of international banks. Business Strategy and the Environment, 31(4), 1641–1655. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bse.2974

[14]   Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2022). The financial cost of carbon. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 34(2), 17–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/jacf.12502

[15]   Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2021a). Do investors care about carbon risk? Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2), 517–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.008

[16]   Bolton, P., & Kacperczyk, M. (2021b). Global pricing of carbon – transition risk. NBER Working Paper No. 28510. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/ w28510/w28510.pdf

[17]   Brar, J., Kornprobst, A., Braun, W. J., Davison, M., & Hare, W. (2021). A case study of the impact of climate change on agricultural loan credit risk. Mathematics, 9(23), 1-23. https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y 2021i23p3058-d690094.html

[18]   Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature, 527(7577), 235. 10.1038/nature15725

[19]   Bua, G., Kappa, D., Ramella, F., & Rognone, L. (2022). Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in european financial markets: A text-based approach. ECB Working Paper No. 2677, pp. 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3860234

[20]   Burger, E., Grba, F., & Heidorn, T. (2022). The impact of ESG ratings on implied and historical volatilities, Frankfurt School Working Paper, No. 230. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/ 251516/1/179584535X.pdf

[21]   Capasso, G., Gianfrate, G., Spinelli, M. (2020), Climate change and credit risk. Journal of Cleaner Production, 266 (3), 121634. https//doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121634

[22]   Capelli, P., Ielasi, F., & Russo, A. (2021). Forecasting volatility by integrating financial risk with environmental, social and governance risk. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 28(5). https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.2180

[23]   Carbone, S., Giuzio, M., Kapadia, S., Krämer, J. S., Nyholm, K., & Vozian, K. (2022). The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk. SUERF Policy Brief 309. https://www.suerf.org/publicat ions/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/the-low-carbon-transition-climate-commitments-and-firm-credit-risk/

[24]   Carleton, T. A., & Hsiang, S. M. (2016). Social and economic impacts of climate. Science, 353(6304): aad9837. https//doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837

[25]   Carrizosa, R., & Ghosh, A. A. (2022). Sustainability-linked loan contracting. Available at SSRN 4103883, pp.55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4103883

[26]   Chava, S. (2014). Environmental externalities and cost of capital. Management Science, 60 (9), 2223–2247. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24550583

[27]   Chavaz, M. (2016). Dis-integrating credit markets: Diversification, securitization, and lending in a recovery. Bank of England Staff Working Paper, No. 617. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2016/dis-integrating-credit-markets-diversification-securitization-and-lending-in-a-recovery.pdf

[28]   Chodnicka, P. (2021). ESG as a Measure of Credit Ratings. Risks, 9(12), 226. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9120226

[29]   Correa, R., He, A., Herpfer, C., & Lel, U. (2023). The rising tide lifts some interest rates: Climate change, natural disaters and loan pricing. ECGI Working Papers in Finance, No. 889/2023, pp. 74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3710451

[30]   Dai, W. (2020). Greenhouse gas emissions and expected returns. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3714874

[31]   Dafermos, Y., Nikolaidi, M., & Galanis, G. (2018). Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy, Ecological Economics, 152, 219 – 234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.011

[32]   Degryse, H., Goncharenko, R., Theunisz, C., & Vadasz, T. (2023). When green meets green. Journal of Corporate Finance, 78. https//doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102355

[33]   Delis, M., De Greiff, K., & Ongena Iosifidi, M. S. (2021). Being stranded with fossil fuel re-serves. Climate policy risk and the pricing of bank loans. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 18-10, pp.64. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3125017

[34]   Dietz, S., Bowen, A., Dixon C., & Gradwell P. (2016), Climate value at risk of global financial assets. Nature Climate Change, 6(7), 676. https//doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2972

[35]   Dell, M., Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2009). Temperature and income: Reconciling new cross-sectional and panel estimates. American Economic Review, 99(2), 198–204. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dell/files/ temperatureincome.pdf

[36]   Do V., Nguyen, T. H., Truong, C., & Vu, T. (2021). Is drought risk priced in private debt contracts? International Review of Finance, 21(2), 724–737. https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12294

[37]   Ehlers, T., Packer, F., & de Greiff, K. (2022). The pricing of carbon risk in syndicated loans: Which risks are priced and why? Journal of Banking & Finance, 136, 106180. https//doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106180

[38]   Faiella, I., & Malvolti, D. (2020). The climate risk for finance in Italy. Questioni dii Economia e Finanza Banca d’Italia N. 545. https//doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3612671

[39]   Faiella, I., & Mistretta, A. (2015). Spesa energetica e competitività delle imprese italiane. Economia Pubblica, 3, 85-122. https://doi.org/10.3280/EP2015-003004

[40]   Faiella, I., & Cingano, F. (2015). La tassazione verde in Italia: L’analisi di una carbon tax sui trasporti, Economia Pubblica, 2, 45-90. https://doi.org/10.3280/EP2015-002002

[41]   Faiella, I., & Lavecchia, L. (2015). La povertà energetica in Italia. Politica Economica, 1, 27-76. https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.2863.0729

[42]   Furukawa, K., Ichiu, H., & Shiraki, N. (2020). How does climate change interact with the financial system? A Survey. Bank of Japan Staff Working Paper. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/bojbojwps/wp20e08.htm

[43]   Goldsmith-Pinkham, P., Gustafson Matthew, T., Lewis Ryan, C., & Schwert, M. (2022). Sea level rise exposure and municipal bond yields. NBER Working Paper No. 30660. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30660/w30660.pdf

[44]   Guin, B., Korhonen, P., & Moktan, S. (2022). Risk differentials between green and brown assets? Economic Letters, 213(6). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110320

[45]   Hauptmann, C. (2017). Corporate sustainability performance and bank loan pricing: It pays to be good, but only when banks are too. Saïd Business School WP 20, pp. 52. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3067422

[46]   Huynh, T. D., Nguyen, T. H., Truong, C. (2020). Climate risk: The price of drought. Journal of Corporate Finance, 65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101750

[47]   Höck, A., Klein, C., Landau, A., & Zwergel, B. (2020). The effect of environmental sustainability on credit risk. Journal of Asset Management, 21(2), 85–93. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-020-00155-4 

[48]   Hong, H., Li, F.W., Xu, J. (2019). Climate risks and market efficiency. Journal of Econometrics, 208(1), 265-281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.09.015

[49]   Javadi, S., & Masum, A. A. (2021), The impact of climate change on the cost of bank loans. Journal of Corporate Finance, 69, 102019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102019

[50]   Jung, H., Santos, J. A., & Seltzer L. (2023). U.S. Banks’ Exposures to Climate Transition Risks. FRB of New York Staff Report, 1058. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1058.pdf

[51]   Kaza, N., Quercia, R. Q., & Tian, C. Y. (2014). Home energy efficiency and mortgage. Community Development Innovation Review, 1, 63–69. https://econpapers.repec.org/article/fipfedfcr/00034.htm

[52]   Kim, M., Surroca, J., & Tribó, J. A. (2014). Impact of ethical behaviour on syndicated loan rates. Journal of Banking & Finance, 38, 122–144. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1343863

[53]   Kim, S., Kumar, N., Lee, J., & Oh, J. (2022). 'ESG' lending, In Proceedings of Paris December 2021 Finance Meeting EUROFIDAI-ESSEC, European Corporate Governance Institute–Finance Working Paper, No. 817, pp. 66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3865147

[54]   Kleimeier, S., & Viehs, M. (2018). Carbon disclosure, emission levels, and the cost of debt, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2719665

[55]   Kousky, C., Palim, M., & Pan, Y. (2020). Flood damage and mortgage credit risk: A case study of hurricane Harvey. Journal of Housing Research, 29, 86-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/10527001.2020.1840131

[56]   Kraemer, M., & Negrilla, L. (2014). Climate change is a global mega-trend for sovereign risk. S&P Ratings Services. https://www.maalot.co.il/publications/gmr20140518110900.pdf

[57]   Krueger, P., Sautner, Z., Tang, D. Y., & Zhong, R. (2023). The effects of mandatory ESG disclosure around the world. European Corporate Governance Institute Finance Working Paper, No. 754, 21–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3832745

[58]   Lampertia, F., Bosetti, V., Roventini, A., & Tavoni, M. (2019). The public costs of climate-induced financial instability. https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04096135/document

[59]   Lööf, H., & Stephan, A. (2019). The impact of ESG on stocks’ downside risk and risk adjusted return. CESIS Working Paper No. 477. https://static.sys.kth.se/itm/wp/cesis/cesiswp477.pdf

[60]   Meisenzahl, R. (2023). How climate change shapes bank lending: Evidence from portfolio reallocation. Working Paper Series WP 2023-12 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. https://www.chicagofed.org/ publications/working-papers/2023/2023-12

[61]   Mueller, I., & Sfrappini, E. (2022). Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending. Economic Letters, 220. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2670~921f2cc6b8.en.pdf

[62]   Pagliari, M. S. (2023). LSIs’ exposures to climate change related risks: an approach to assess physical risks. International Journal of Central Banking. https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q1a1.pdf

[63]   Pankratz, N., Bauern, R., & Derwall, J. (2019). Climate change, firm performance, and investor surprises. Management Science. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3443146

[64]   Pindyck, R. S. (2020). What we know and don’t know about climate change, and implications for policy. NBER Working Paper, No. 27304 https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27304/w27304.pdf

[65]   Regelink, M., & Henk & Vleeschhouwer, R. J. (2017). Waterproof? An exploration of climate-related risks for the Dutch financial sector. De Nederlandsche Bank. https://www.dnb.nl/media/r40dgfap/waterproof-an-exploration-of-climate-related-risks-for-the-dutch-financial-sector.pdf

[66]   Reghezza, A., Altunbas, Y., Marques-Ibanez, D., Rodriguez, d’Acri C., & Spaggiari, M. (2022). Do banks fuel climate change? Journal of Financial Stability, 62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101049

[67]   Stern, N. (2013). The structure of economic modelling of the potential impacts of climate change: grafting gross underestimation of risk onto already narrow science models. Journal of Economic Literature, 51(3), 838-859. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.51.3.838

[68]   Viviani, Jean-Laurent, Fall, M., & Revelli, C. (2019). The effects of socially responsible dimensions on risk dynamics and risk predictability: A value-at-risk perspective. Journal of International Management, 23(3). https://doi.org/10.7202/1062215AR

*** European Central Bank (2022): 2022 climate risk stress test, July