Assessing the Trade and Welfare Impacts of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on Morocco: A Combined Gravity-CGE Analysis

Article DOI: https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v20.3(89).07

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Author(s):

Yassine EL HAJOUI Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modelling (LEAM), Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
Nabil El BAOUCHARI FSJES-Souissi, Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modelling (LEAM), Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
Zineb OTMANI Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modelling, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
Ayoub KHARBOUCHE Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modelling, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
Badr ELHAMZAOUI Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modelling, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco
Youness EL BAROUDI Laboratory of Economic Analysis and Modelling, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Morocco

Abstract:

On May 30, 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) came into effect, marking a significant milestone for African leaders in establishing the largest trading area since the founding of the World Trade Organization. Despite numerous studies on its impacts across the continent, limited attention has been devoted to Morocco.

This study evaluates Morocco's trade potential with AfCFTA member states. It examines the economic effects of the agreement using two complementary methods: a gravity model based on CEPII data to explore trade potential and a CGE framework based on the PEP 1.1 model calibrated with SAM 2019 to assess the overall impacts on the Moroccan economy. Results suggest Morocco's simulated exports and imports with Africa could increase by 72% and 65%, respectively. Yet, overall macroeconomic gains are modest: exports rise by only 0.80% and imports by 0.93%. GDP growth is projected to remain limited at 0.76% (basic prices) and 0.55% (market prices), with minimal income improvement for households (0.65%), firms (0.77%), and the government (0.05%). These results underscore the fragility of South-South trade and the need to reinforce North-South cooperation to enhance Morocco's economic benefits from AfCFTA.

Copyright© 2025 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article’s history: Received 2nd of August, 2025; Received in revised form 29th of August, 2025; Accepted 12th of September, 2025; Available online: 30th of September, 2025. Published as article in the Volume XX, Fall, Issue 3(89), 2025.

How to cite:

El Hajoui, Y., El Baouchari, N., Otmani, Z., Kharbouche, A., Elhamzaoui, B., & El Baroudi, Y. (2025). Assessing the Trade and Welfare Impacts of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on Morocco: A Combined Gravity-CGE Analysis. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Volume XX, Fall, 3(89), 463 – 490. https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v20.3(89).07

Conflict of Interest Statement: The authors declare that they have no financial or personal conflicts of interest that could influence the results or interpretations presented in this article. No external funding sources were received for the conduct of this research.

Data Availability Statement: The data that support the findings of this study were obtained from the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), specifically the BACI International Trade Database (Conte et al., 2022). These data are openly available at CEPII’s database repository: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd.asp. Processed datasets and replication files generated during the study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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