State Beveridge Curve Shifts during the Great Recession
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Aaron POPP Department of Economics, California State University, Fullerton, California, United States of America
This paper estimates the size and timing of state-level shifts of the Beveridge Curve to examine changes in US labour market conditions during the Great Recession. Compared to a benchmark based on each state’s share of unemployed, states in the Southwest, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic experienced excess shifts. The timing of the shifts is heterogeneous, with 35 states shifting between November, 2009 and March, 2010. Regression evidence shows that population growth, higher construction and natural resource employment, house price appreciation, and urbanization explain the size of the state shifts, which suggests that diverse factors contributed to the shifts in the Beveridge curve.
Copyright© 2025 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Article’s history: Received 23rd of June, 2025; Revised 29th of July, 2025; Accepted 12th of August, 2025; Available online: 30th of September, 2025. Published as article in the Volume XX, Fall, Issue 3(89), 2025.
Popp, A. (2025). State Beveridge Curve Shifts during the Great Recession. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Volume XX, Fall, 3(89), 401 – 425. https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v20.3(89).04
Acknowledgments: We thank seminar participants at California State University, Fullerton for helpful comments and suggestions.
Conflict of Interest Statement: The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Data Availability Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the author upon reasonable request.
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