Volume XIX, Winter, Issue 4(86), 2024
-
Universal Basic Income (UBI) has gained attention in both academic and policy circles. However, its implications are not fully understood. This paper develops a general equilibrium model with uninsured income risks to examine such implications. Multiple policy alternatives are considered under both deficit-expanding and deficit-neutral structures. If the UBI policy is not financed through additional taxation, its impact on measures of inequality is unclear. The consumption and income inequality decrease while wealth inequality rises. Deficit-neutral UBIs resolve this ambiguity as the higher marginal tax rates prevent the wealth inequality from rising, which leads to a more equal distribution of consumption and income. However, the aggregate effects are amplified. The income tax must be as high as 80% of the output to keep the deficit from expanding. The interest rate rises, and the output and capital-to-output ratio sharply fall as the precautionary saving motives are weakened.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
-
This study aims to examine India's position in the global green bond market and identify areas for improvement to develop its sustainable finance sector. Analysing data from the Luxembourg Green Exchange (1999-2024) and Indian market sources, including Securities and Exchange Board of India, National Stock Exchange, and Climate Bond Initiatives. Findings reveal that green bonds dominate the global market, with the Luxembourg Green Exchange showing the highest variability in bond coupons and maturity durations. In India, the private sector holds a significant 84% market share, with companies issuing various sustainable bonds. However, challenges persist, including lack of standardisation, limited investor awareness, and inadequate disclosure and reporting standards. Research findings have implications for policymakers, investors, and issuers, emphasising the importance of a supportive ecosystem for sustainable finance to flourish in India. Addressing the challenges and leveraging opportunities can help India unlock the full potential of its green bond market and contribute to global sustainable finance efforts. This study contributes to understanding India's green bond market and its potential for growth, highlighting the need for increased standardisation, transparency, and alignment with national and international best practices to develop India's sustainable finance sector.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
-
Future sustainable economic development depends heavily on public policy at regional, national, and global levels. Therefore, it is essential to conduct a thorough policy analysis that ensures consistent and effective policy guidance. However, a major challenge in traditional policy analysis is the uncertainty inherent in the models used. Both policymakers and analysts face fundamental uncertainty regarding which model accurately represents the natural, economic, or social phenomena being analyzed. In this paper, we present a comprehensive framework that explicitly incorporates model uncertainty into the policy decision-making process. Addressing this uncertainty typically requires significant computational resources. We utilize metamodeling techniques to reduce computational demands. We illustrate the impact of various metamodel types by applying a simplified model to the CAADP policy in Nigeria. Our findings highlight that neglecting model uncertainty can lead to inefficient policy decisions and substantial waste of public funds.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
-
The topic of banking performance and efficiency has received considerable attention, yet there is a noticeable gap in examining the performance and efficiency of central banks. Moreover, there is a scarcity of studies on central bank efficiency. This paper aims to investigate the factors that influenced the efficiency of the Central Bank of Tunisia from 2000 to 2020, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. The appropriate econometric methodology was first established to achieve this goal, after which the model's results were presented and interpreted.
The study's findings indicate that the Tunisian Central Bank’s efficiency is influenced by several macroeconomic (inflation, public deficit, growth rate), international (exchange rate, foreign debt), and political variables (political and government instability, conflict of interest), each with a varying degree of impact. Interestingly, the transition of the Central Bank of Tunisia from a dependent to an independent institution in 2016 did not yield a notable change in efficiency.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
-
This research seeks to explore the volatility patterns for the SENSEX index to figure out the characteristics of volatility in Indian stock trading and to investigate the relationship between returns and volatility of the Indian market for the last ten years. The research adds to the existing knowledge about stock market fluctuations, their implications for investors, and their impact on developing the country's economy. The study involves using daily returns data from BSE SENSEX from 01 Jan 2014 to 31 Dec 2023. Daily closing prices are obtained from the official website of BSE, and returns are calculated based on these prices. The Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-perron are taken to make the time series static. ARCH, GARCH, and GARCH-M tests are utilized to capture volatility clustering, return and volatility relationship. The results reveal that Fluctuations in the Indian stock market, particularly shown in the SENSEX index of the BSE, were highest in the year 2020. Findings suggest that GARCH-M does not show any relation between expected returns and market volatility. The risk-premium parameter is positive but statistically insignificant. If you want to hedge against risk, the risk premium is not very high. It means that taking risks does not give you more returns. Durbin Watson's value of 1.981401 further supports the model's suitability.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
-
This study examines the impact of public agricultural spending on cowpea and soybean yields in Cameroon from 2000 to 2024, using time series data and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analysis. The results indicate that public agricultural spending, land use, agricultural labour, and fertilizer use explain 82% and 96% of the variation in soybean and cowpea yields, respectively. Findings reveal a positive and significant relationship between agricultural labour and yields for both crops, highlighting the importance of labour-intensive farming practices. Additionally, increased public agricultural spending significantly enhances cowpea yields, emphasizing the critical role of government investment in agriculture. Conversely, a 30% decrease in public spending would likely reduce yields due to diminished access to essential inputs and services. The study underscores the need for sustained public support and efficient labour use to boost agricultural productivity in Cameroon.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
-
According to the economic literature, the influence of political instability on economic activity is ambiguous. In the case of ECOWAS, we attempt to verify whether political instability conditions the effect of industrial performance on growth. The aim of our study is to verify the relationship between industrial performance and economic growth in ECOWAS under the influence of political instability over the period 1990-2018. To this end, we estimate a non-linear model using the Pool Mean Group (PMG) method. Our results show that political instability negatively influences the effect of industry performance on GDP growth in ECOWAS. However, there is a threshold level below which the political atmosphere does not significantly deteriorate the contribution of industrial performance to the ECOWAS economy. This threshold is 0.84% in our study.
Copyright© 2024 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the license CC-BY 4.0., which permits any further distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.